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Home / Proceedings / Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30 / No. 2 (2016): The Twenty-Eighth Conference on Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence

A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives

March 8, 2023

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Authors

Mai Winstrup

University of Washington


DOI:

10.1609/aaai.v30i2.19084


Abstract:

We present a Hidden Markov Model-based algorithm for constructing timescales for paleoclimate records by annual layer counting. This objective, statistics-based approach has a number of major advantages over the current manual approach, beginning with speed. Manual layer counting of a single core (up to 3km in length) can require multiple person-years of time; the StratiCounter algorithm can count up to 100 layers/min, corresponding to a full-length timescale constructed in a few days. Moreover, the algorithm gives rigorous uncertainty estimates for the resulting timescale, which are far smaller than those produced manually. We demonstrate the utility of StratiCounter by applying it to ice-core data from two cores from Greenland and Antarctica. Performance of the algorithm is comparable to a manual approach. When using all available data, false-discovery rates and miss rates are 1-1.2% and 1.2-1.6%, respectively, for the two cores. For one core, even better agreement is found when using only the chemistry series primarily employed by human experts in the manual approach.

Topics: AAAI

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Mai Winstrup A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30 (2016) 4053.

Mai Winstrup A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives AAAI 2016, 4053.

Mai Winstrup (2016). A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30, 4053.

Mai Winstrup. A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30 2016 p.4053.

Mai Winstrup. 2016. A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives. "Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30". 4053.

Mai Winstrup. (2016) "A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives", Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30, p.4053

Mai Winstrup, "A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives", AAAI, p.4053, 2016.

Mai Winstrup. "A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30, 2016, p.4053.

Mai Winstrup. "A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 30, (2016): 4053.

Mai Winstrup. A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Infer Timescales for High-Resolution Climate Archives. AAAI[Internet]. 2016[cited 2023]; 4053.


ISSN: 2374-3468


Published by AAAI Press, Palo Alto, California USA
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