• Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
AAAI

AAAI

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

    • AAAI

      AAAI

      Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

  • About AAAIAbout AAAI
    • AAAI Officers and Committees
    • AAAI Staff
    • Bylaws of AAAI
    • AAAI Awards
      • Fellows Program
      • Classic Paper Award
      • Dissertation Award
      • Distinguished Service Award
      • Allen Newell Award
      • Outstanding Paper Award
      • Award for Artificial Intelligence for the Benefit of Humanity
      • Feigenbaum Prize
      • Patrick Henry Winston Outstanding Educator Award
      • Engelmore Award
      • AAAI ISEF Awards
      • Senior Member Status
      • Conference Awards
    • AAAI Resources
    • AAAI Mailing Lists
    • Past AAAI Presidential Addresses
    • Presidential Panel on Long-Term AI Futures
    • Past AAAI Policy Reports
      • A Report to ARPA on Twenty-First Century Intelligent Systems
      • The Role of Intelligent Systems in the National Information Infrastructure
    • AAAI Logos
    • News
  • aaai-icon_ethics-diversity-line-yellowEthics & Diversity
  • Conference talk bubbleConferences & Symposia
    • AAAI Conference
    • AIES AAAI/ACM
    • AIIDE
    • IAAI
    • ICWSM
    • HCOMP
    • Spring Symposia
    • Summer Symposia
    • Fall Symposia
    • Code of Conduct for Conferences and Events
  • PublicationsPublications
    • AAAI Press
    • AI Magazine
    • Conference Proceedings
    • AAAI Publication Policies & Guidelines
    • Request to Reproduce Copyrighted Materials
  • aaai-icon_ai-magazine-line-yellowAI Magazine
    • Issues and Articles
    • Author Guidelines
    • Editorial Focus
  • MembershipMembership
    • Member Login
    • Developing Country List
    • AAAI Chapter Program

  • Career CenterCareer Center
  • aaai-icon_ai-topics-line-yellowAITopics
  • aaai-icon_contact-line-yellowContact

Home / Proceedings / Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 35 / No. 6: AAAI-21 Technical Tracks 6

Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19

February 1, 2023

Download PDF

Authors

Alexander Rodríguez

Georgia Institute of Technology


Nikhil Muralidhar

Virginia Tech


Bijaya Adhikari

University of Iowa


Anika Tabassum

Virginia tech Georgia Institute of Technology


Naren Ramakrishnan

Virginia Tech


B. Aditya Prakash

Georgia Institute of Technology


DOI:

10.1609/aaai.v35i6.16618


Abstract:

Forecasting influenza in a timely manner aids health organizations and policymakers in adequate preparation and decision making. However, effective influenza forecasting still remains a challenge despite increasing research interest. It is even more challenging amidst the COVID pandemic, when the influenza-like illness (ILI) counts are affected by various factors such as symptomatic similarities with COVID-19 and shift in healthcare seeking patterns of the general population. Under the current pandemic, historical influenza models carry valuable expertise about the disease dynamics but face difficulties adapting. Therefore, we propose CALI-Net, a neural transfer learning architecture which allows us to 'steer' a historical disease forecasting model to new scenarios where flu and COVID co-exist. Our framework enables this adaptation by automatically learning when it should emphasize learning from COVID-related signals and when it should learn from the historical model. Thus, we exploit representations learned from historical ILI data as well as the limited COVID-related signals. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach is successful in adapting a historical forecasting model to the current pandemic. In addition, we show that success in our primary goal, adaptation, does not sacrifice overall performance as compared with state-of-the-art influenza forecasting approaches.

Topics: AAAI

Primary Sidebar

HOW TO CITE:

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19 Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2021) 4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19 AAAI 2021, 4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash (2021). Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash. Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 2021 p.4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash. 2021. Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19. "Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence". 4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash. (2021) "Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19", Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, p.4855-4863

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash, "Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19", AAAI, p.4855-4863, 2021.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash. "Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2021, p.4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash. "Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, (2021): 4855-4863.

Alexander Rodríguez||Nikhil Muralidhar||Bijaya Adhikari||Anika Tabassum||Naren Ramakrishnan||B. Aditya Prakash. Steering a Historical Disease Forecasting Model Under a Pandemic: Case of Flu and COVID-19. AAAI[Internet]. 2021[cited 2023]; 4855-4863.


ISSN: 2374-3468


Published by AAAI Press, Palo Alto, California USA
Copyright 2022, Association for the Advancement of
Artificial Intelligence 1900 Embarcadero Road, Suite
101, Palo Alto, California 94303 All Rights Reserved

We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
Cookie SettingsAccept All
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT