Correcting Predictions for Approximate Bayesian Inference

2020-06-02

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 34

Volume

Vol. 34 No. 04: AAAI-20 Technical Tracks 4

AAAI Technical Track: Machine Learning

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to incorrect posterior predictive distributions. We present a novel approach that corrects for inaccuracies in posterior inference by altering the decision-making process. We train a separate model to make optimal decisions under the approximate posterior, combining interpretable Bayesian modeling with optimization of direct predictive accuracy in a principled fashion. The solution is generally applicable as a plug-in module for predictive decision-making for arbitrary probabilistic programs, irrespective of the posterior inference strategy. We demonstrate the approach empirically in several problems, confirming its potential.

10.1609/aaai.v34i04.5879