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Home / Proceedings / Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing

Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction

February 1, 2023

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Authors

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen

Harvard University,UC Santa Cruz,Harvard University


DOI:

10.1609/hcomp.v9i1.18946


Abstract:

Crowdsourcing enables the solicitation of forecasts on a variety of prediction tasks from distributed groups of people. How to aggregate the solicited forecasts, which may vary in quality, into an accurate final prediction remains a challenging yet critical question. Studies have found that weighing expert forecasts more in aggregation can improve the accuracy of the aggregated prediction. However, this approach usually requires access to the historical performance data of the forecasters, which are often not available. In this paper, we study the problem of aggregating forecasts without having historical performance data. We propose using peer prediction methods, a family of mechanisms initially designed to truthfully elicit private information in the absence of ground truth verification, to assess the expertise of forecasters, and then using this assessment to improve forecast aggregation. We evaluate our peer-prediction-aided aggregators on a diverse collection of 14 human forecast datasets. Compared with a variety of existing aggregators, our aggregators achieve a significant and consistent improvement on aggregation accuracy measured by the Brier score and the log score. Our results reveal the effectiveness of identifying experts to improve aggregation even without historical data.

Topics: HCOMP

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HOW TO CITE:

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing (2021) 131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction HCOMP 2021, 131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen (2021). Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing, 131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen. Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing 2021 p.131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen. 2021. Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction. "Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing". 131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen. (2021) "Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction", Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing, p.131-142

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen, "Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction", HCOMP, p.131-142, 2021.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen. "Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing, 2021, p.131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen. "Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction". Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing, (2021): 131-142.

Juntao Wang,Yang Liu,Yiling Chen. Forecast Aggregation via Peer Prediction. HCOMP[Internet]. 2021[cited 2023]; 131-142.


ISSN: 2769-1349


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