Revisiting the Problem of Belief Revision with Uncertain Evidence

Logical Formalization of Commonsense Reasoning

Volume

Papers from the 2003 AAAI Spring Symposium

Contents

We revisit the problem of revising probabilistic beliefs using uncertain evidence, and report results on four major issues relating to this problem: How to specify uncertain evidence? How to revise a distribution? Should, and do, iterated belief revisions commute? And how to provide guarantees on the amount of belief change induced by a revision? Our discussion is focused on two main methods for probabilistic revision: Jeffrey’s rule of probability kinematics and Pearl’s method of virtual evidence, where we analyze and unify these methods from the perspective of the questions posed above.