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Home / Proceedings / Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media

The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity

February 1, 2023

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Authors

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman

University of California Los Angeles,HP Labs,HP Labs


DOI:

10.1609/icwsm.v6i1.14261


Abstract:

News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional feature space derived from properties of an article and evaluate the efficacy of these features to serve as predictors of online popularity. We examine both regression and classification algorithms and demonstrate that despite randomness in human behavior, it is possible to predict ranges of popularity on twitter with an overall 84% accuracy. Our study also serves to illustrate the differences between traditionally prominent sources and those immensely popular on the social web.

Topics: ICWSM

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HOW TO CITE:

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (2012) 26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity ICWSM 2012, 26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman (2012). The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity. Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman. The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity. Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media 2012 p.26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman. 2012. The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity. "Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media". 26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman. (2012) "The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity", Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, p.26-33

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman, "The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity", ICWSM, p.26-33, 2012.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman. "The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity". Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 2012, p.26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman. "The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity". Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, (2012): 26-33.

Roja Bandari,Sitaram Asur,Bernardo Huberman. The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity. ICWSM[Internet]. 2012[cited 2023]; 26-33.


ISSN: 2334-0770


Published by AAAI Press, Palo Alto, California USA
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