A Serious Game for the Illumination of Alternative Fuel and Vehicle Transitions

No. 9: Technosocial Predictive Analytics

Volume

Papers from the 2009 AAAI Spring Symposium

Contents

The transition to alternative fuels and vehicles presents many challenges that require long-range strategic thought and planning. Fuel producers must make expensive infrastructure decisions about which fuels to support years before they are sold. Vehicle producers must commit to new drivetrains on a similar long-range schedule. Whichever technologies prevail, hydrogen fuel cell, PHEV, BEV or biofuels, fuel and vehicle manufacturers must be reasonably certain that the technologies will be market mature and that consumers will be ready to support them. The cost of a misstep is large. In order to illuminate the intricacies of an alternative fuel transition and develop optimal implementation strategies we are developing a serious game. In the game, players will represent vehicle producers, fuel producers and consumers. The players will make decisions over a 40-year time horizon with the objective of maximizing a personal utility score while meeting GHG reduction mandates. Game administrators will act as the government and impose predetermined exogenous scenarios (e.g. rising oil prices). A computer model based on current literature and expert opinion will manage the market representation.