AAAI Publications, 2011 AAAI Fall Symposium Series

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The Exploration of Engineering Hybrid Modeling Strategies Applied to World Cup Soccer
Liz Johnson, Klaus-Jurgen Diepold, James Mathieson

Last modified: 2011-11-03

Abstract


Given the challenges of modeling multi-scale social phenomena, hybrids may hold the key to unlocking social complexity dynamics. We introduce hybrid system modeling from engineering, as a means to capture complex dynamics within interacting, multi-scale, and global social systems. Whereby hybrid modeling is used in industrial processes and automated control systems, this research uses world cup soccer tournament simulations to demonstrate successful applications. Agent-based modeling for soccer games and cellular automatons for crowd and bettor emotional reactions are modeled on each side of a playing field. A predator-prey theoretical approach is applied with self-organizing soccer teams represented as predators and the soccer ball as prey. Simulations of multiple soccer tournaments of thirty-two teams were conducted with pre-game betting and without betting as a pseudo-control measure. Tournaments conducted with pre-game betting resulted in the final tournament games having the wining team demonstrating strong defensive playing styles and scoring by a large margin. Divergence of playing styles did not develop in tournaments without pre-game betting. Hybrids offer a means to explore complexity with evolutionary learning by players, corresponding emotional reactions of spectators, and betting interacting, resulting in patterns of emergent behavior and unique evolutionary behavioral responses to complexity.

Keywords


Agent-based model, Hybrid Modeling, World Cup Soccer Simulation

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