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Inference techniques play a central role in many cognitive systems. They transform low-level observations of the environment into high-level, actionable knowledge which then gets used by mechanisms that drive action, problem-solving, and learning. This paper presents an initial effort at combining results from AI and psychology into a pragmatic and scalable computational reasoning system. Our approach combines a numeric notion of plausibility with first-order logic to produce an incremental inference engine that is guided by heuristics derived from the psychological literature. We illustrate core ideas with detailed examples and discuss the advantages of the approach with respect to cognitive systems.

inference; reasoning; logic; uncertainty