AAAI Publications, 2009 AAAI Fall Symposium Series

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Dynamic Threshold Modeling of Budget Changes
Bryan D. Jones, Laszlo Zalanyi, Frank R. Baumgartner, Peter L. Erdi

Last modified: 2009-10-30


A family of models was given to explain how the public bud- geting process, as a multi-stage institutional decision making mechanism transforms the stimuli characterized by Gaussian distribution to skew, power law distributions. While the an- nual change is generally incremental, deviations from this incremental changes are more frequent, than the Gaussian distribution suggests. A set of threshold models, reflecting error-accumulation and friction, was suggested. The three- threshold model seems to be good to describe appropriately the basic statistical features of the data.

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