AAAI Publications, Twelfth Artificial Intelligence and Interactive Digital Entertainment Conference

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Rapid Prediction of Player Retention in Free-to-Play Mobile Games
Anders Drachen, Eric Thurston Lundquist, Yungjen Kung, Pranav Rao, Rafet Sifa, Julian Runge, Diego Klabjan

Last modified: 2016-09-19


Predicting and improving player retention is crucial to the success of mobile Free-to-Play games. This paper explores the problem of rapid retention prediction in this context. Heuristic modeling approaches are introduced as a way of building simple rules for predicting short-term retention. Compared to common classification algorithms, our heuristic-based approach achieves reasonable and comparable performance using information from the first session, day, and week of player activity.


game analytics; prediction; machine learning; monetization; heuristics;

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