Bayesian Reasoning for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting and Risk Analysis

Grace W. Rumantir

Improved methods for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting and risk analysis are the end products of this project leading to the wider use in the mitigation of the devastating impacts of tropical cyclones. Single-disciplined approaches in TC intensity forecasting by meteorologists and in risk analysis by social scientists so far have not seen satisfactory results. This is because of the intrinsically high degree of complexity in both the modelling and the problem domain parts of the project.

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