Proliferation Import Model

Anthony Ciervo

Link Analysis (LA) is a methodology that can create and display associations between organizations and individuals in say, a drug cartel. While LA is well suited to address the simplest questions (e.g., is there a link between person A and person B?), it generally does not disclose an organization’s structure or activity. In addition, LA graphic displays can get overloaded with links. Our approach to the use of LA addresses these difficulties by using the PIM network as the hierarchical structure for import activities and analyzing links in the background using qualitative attributes to draw associations among suspect arcs and nodes. In this manner for example, the presence of an organization known in one instance to support WMD importation could increase the use probability of an otherwise non-suspect arc or node. Similarly, the presence of associates of known WMD facilitators could likewise implicate other parts of a potential import network.

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