Theodore Charitos, Peter de Waal, and Linda C. van der Gaag, Utrecht University
Sequential statistical models such as dynamic Bayesian networks and hidden Markov models more specifically, model stochastic processes over time. In this paper, we study for these models the effect of consecutive similar observations on the posterior probability distribution of the represented process. We show that, given such observations, the posterior distribution converges to a limit distribution. Building upon the rate of the convergence, we further show that, given some wished-for level of accuracy, part of the inference can be forestalled, thereby reducing the computational requirements upon runtime.